Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak
Identifieur interne : 000563 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000562; suivant : 000564Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak
Auteurs : Chad R. Wells ; Pratha Sah ; Seyed M. Moghadas [Canada] ; Abhishek Pandey ; Affan Shoukat ; Yaning Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Zheng Wang ; Lauren A. Meyers ; Burton H. Singer ; Alison P. GalvaniSource :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (), Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (législation et jurisprudence), Dépistage systématique, Fonctions de vraisemblance, Humains, Incidence, Infections à coronavirus (), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Internationalité, Pandémies (), Pneumopathie virale (), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Risque, Santé mondiale, Santé publique, Voyage, Épidémies.
- MESH :
- législation et jurisprudence : Contrôle des maladies contagieuses.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Dépistage systématique, Fonctions de vraisemblance, Humains, Incidence, Infections à coronavirus, Internationalité, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale, Risque, Santé mondiale, Santé publique, Voyage, Épidémies.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Communicable Disease Control (legislation & jurisprudence), Communicable Disease Control (methods), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Epidemics, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Internationality, Likelihood Functions, Mass Screening, Pandemics (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Public Health, Risk, Travel.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- legislation & jurisprudence : Communicable Disease Control.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Betacoronavirus, Epidemics, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Internationality, Likelihood Functions, Mass Screening, Public Health, Risk, Travel.
Abstract
To contain the global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19), border control measures, such as airport screening and travel restrictions, have been implemented in several countries. Our results show that these measures likely slowed the rate of exportation from mainland China to other countries, but are insufficient to contain the global spread of COVID-19. With most cases arriving during the asymptomatic incubation period, our results suggest that rapid contact tracing is essential both within the epicenter and at importation sites to limit human-to-human transmission outside of mainland China.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002616117
PubMed: 32170017
PubMed Central: 7132249
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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Wells</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis,<institution>Yale School of Public Health</institution>, New Haven,<addr-line>CT</addr-line> 06520;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sah, Pratha" sort="Sah, Pratha" uniqKey="Sah P" first="Pratha" last="Sah">Pratha Sah</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis,<institution>Yale School of Public Health</institution>, New Haven,<addr-line>CT</addr-line> 06520;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory,<institution>York University</institution>, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3,<country>Canada</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pandey, Abhishek" sort="Pandey, Abhishek" uniqKey="Pandey A" first="Abhishek" last="Pandey">Abhishek Pandey</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis,<institution>Yale School of Public Health</institution>, New Haven,<addr-line>CT</addr-line> 06520;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shoukat, Affan" sort="Shoukat, Affan" uniqKey="Shoukat A" first="Affan" last="Shoukat">Affan Shoukat</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis,<institution>Yale School of Public Health</institution>, New Haven,<addr-line>CT</addr-line> 06520;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yaning" sort="Wang, Yaning" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yaning" last="Wang">Yaning Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">State Key Laboratory of Mycology, Institute of Microbiology,<institution>Chinese Academy of Sciences</institution>, 100101 Beijing,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zheng" sort="Wang, Zheng" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zheng" last="Wang">Zheng Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Biostatistics,<institution>Yale School of Public Health</institution>, New Haven,<addr-line>CT</addr-line> 06510;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren A" sort="Meyers, Lauren A" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren A." last="Meyers">Lauren A. Meyers</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Integrative Biology,<institution>The University of Texas at Austin</institution>, Austin,<addr-line>TX</addr-line> 78712;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>Santa Fe Institute</institution>, Santa Fe,<addr-line>NM</addr-line> 87501;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Singer, Burton H" sort="Singer, Burton H" uniqKey="Singer B" first="Burton H." last="Singer">Burton H. Singer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Emerging Pathogens Institute,<institution>University of Florida</institution>, Gainesville,<addr-line>FL</addr-line> 32610</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Galvani, Alison P" sort="Galvani, Alison P" uniqKey="Galvani A" first="Alison P." last="Galvani">Alison P. Galvani</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis,<institution>Yale School of Public Health</institution>, New Haven,<addr-line>CT</addr-line> 06520;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (legislation & jurisprudence)</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (methods)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Internationality</term><term>Likelihood Functions</term><term>Mass Screening</term><term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Risk</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses ()</term><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (législation et jurisprudence)</term><term>Dépistage systématique</term><term>Fonctions de vraisemblance</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infections à coronavirus ()</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Internationalité</term><term>Pandémies ()</term><term>Pneumopathie virale ()</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Risque</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="legislation & jurisprudence" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="législation et jurisprudence" xml:lang="fr"><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Internationality</term><term>Likelihood Functions</term><term>Mass Screening</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Risk</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses</term><term>Dépistage systématique</term><term>Fonctions de vraisemblance</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Internationalité</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term><term>Risque</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>To contain the global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19), border control measures, such as airport screening and travel restrictions, have been implemented in several countries. Our results show that these measures likely slowed the rate of exportation from mainland China to other countries, but are insufficient to contain the global spread of COVID-19. With most cases arriving during the asymptomatic incubation period, our results suggest that rapid contact tracing is essential both within the epicenter and at importation sites to limit human-to-human transmission outside of mainland China.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Paules, C I" uniqKey="Paules C">C. I. Paules</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marston, H D" uniqKey="Marston H">H. D. Marston</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fauci, A S" uniqKey="Fauci A">A. S. Fauci</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xu, C" uniqKey="Xu C">C. Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, J" uniqKey="Wang J">J. 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Eggo</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bogoch, I I" uniqKey="Bogoch I">I. I. Bogoch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tan, W" uniqKey="Tan W">W. Tan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brown, L H" uniqKey="Brown L">L. H. Brown</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aitken, P" uniqKey="Aitken P">P. Aitken</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leggat, P A" uniqKey="Leggat P">P. A. Leggat</name></author><author><name sortKey="Speare, R" uniqKey="Speare R">R. Speare</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Barr, M" uniqKey="Barr M">M. Barr</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Du, Z" uniqKey="Du Z">Z. Du</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Joseph, A" uniqKey="Joseph A">A. Joseph</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cohen, J" uniqKey="Cohen J">J. Cohen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Galvani, Alison P" sort="Galvani, Alison P" uniqKey="Galvani A" first="Alison P." last="Galvani">Alison P. Galvani</name><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren A" sort="Meyers, Lauren A" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren A." last="Meyers">Lauren A. Meyers</name><name sortKey="Pandey, Abhishek" sort="Pandey, Abhishek" uniqKey="Pandey A" first="Abhishek" last="Pandey">Abhishek Pandey</name><name sortKey="Sah, Pratha" sort="Sah, Pratha" uniqKey="Sah P" first="Pratha" last="Sah">Pratha Sah</name><name sortKey="Shoukat, Affan" sort="Shoukat, Affan" uniqKey="Shoukat A" first="Affan" last="Shoukat">Affan Shoukat</name><name sortKey="Singer, Burton H" sort="Singer, Burton H" uniqKey="Singer B" first="Burton H." last="Singer">Burton H. Singer</name><name sortKey="Wang, Zheng" sort="Wang, Zheng" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zheng" last="Wang">Zheng Wang</name><name sortKey="Wells, Chad R" sort="Wells, Chad R" uniqKey="Wells C" first="Chad R." last="Wells">Chad R. Wells</name></noCountry><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name></noRegion></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Wang, Yaning" sort="Wang, Yaning" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yaning" last="Wang">Yaning Wang</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |